Crop Conditions as of 3-17-2020
|Past Weeks Rainfall||A mixed bag but MUCH better than a year ago|
|Soil Moisture||Topsoil and subsoil are both wet|
|Temperature||40’s highs after 60’s to 70’s in early March|
|Crop Progress||Some fertilization and manure hauling occurred last week.|
|Crop Stage||N/A||Crop Stage||N/A|
|Yield Potential||Trend-line or better||Yield Potential||Trend-line or better|
|Current Prices||$3.23||Current Prices||$7.71|
|Next October Prices||$3.22||Fall Price||$7.53|
|Past Weeks Trend||Down hard past week||Past Weeks Trend||Also down hard|
We were glad to have a great early March reprieve from winter weather. We’re now into more “typical” mid-March weather, cool but mostly comfortable with some very windy days.
Grain markets are the main topic for this conversation. January, February, and early March all had a few days of price strength that looked like it was building to promising price levels for corn, only to fall back a little each time. Beans peaked on January 2, fell hard by the end of January but staged a moderate comeback by early March. March 4th was a day that appeared to be nearing a Sell point in both markets; however, turned out to be the turning point as coronavirus took hold of all markets. This past week has been particularly hard as both crops have fallen back to prices not seen since last September. The double-whammy of coronavirus and the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia has really hit the corn market. Ethanol demand has dropped, ethanol plants have widened basis by as much as 25 cents in the past week, and some may shut down for a while. With beans, this week’s export numbers were way off thanks mainly to you know who.
Some analysts believe we’ll have a sharp rebound once things get “straightened out”. I guess their guess is as good as yours or mine at this point. It does seem probably that another round of MFP payments will be formulated for some time this year. It would seem most politically expedient to make that payment just before election time. There will be good money made for those who can bottom-pick the market. Problem is, the bottom could be quicksand right now.
Dennis Reyman, AFM, ARA
Crop Update Archives – Please click on the green button for our Southwest Archives page