Crop Conditions as of 6/28/2021
|Past Weeks Rainfall||Good rains over several days, good coverage across the area, but quite variable totals. Some strips of bad hail damage.|
|Soil Moisture||Topsoil is OK for now, but most areas have not received enough to recharge subsoil.|
|Temperature||Warm temps in the 80’s and 90’s. Night-time in the 60’s.|
|Crop Progress||Normal for both crops, both starting to grow quickly.|
|Crop Stage||Thigh-high to chest-high||Crop Stage||Mostly 8-15″ tall|
|Yield Potential||Trendline||Yield Potential||Trendline|
|Current Prices||$6.32||Current Prices||$13.50|
|New crop (Oct 2021)||$4.38||New Crop (Oct 2021)||$12.33|
|October 2022||$4.41||Oct 2022||$11.54|
|Past Weeks Trend||Lower||Past Weeks Trend||Lower|
Rains over this past weekend were generally pretty good in that everyone got something. However, they were also quite spotty, ranging from ½” total to nearly 5” in some very localized spots. Generally, 1-2” total for the past week would apply to the majority of the area. That, coupled with more reasonable temperatures, has made for some very good growing conditions right now. Some fields will have excellent conditions for corn the next few weeks, until we reach pollination. Other fields will need to continue to catch showers, as those under an inch will not get very far. Corn is now close to 0.2” per day (between transpiration and evaporation), so an inch will last about five days. It has enough height now to shade the rows.
Beans have remained short but noticeable growth now with some rain on them. Flowers are appearing and we are past the first day of summer. Beans begin the reproductive phase (pod development) as the day length begins shortening. At this point, both crops have good potential if favorable weather conditions continue. Hail damage was quite bad on a strip from southeastern Plymouth County angling southeasterly into the Arthur and Odebolt area.
Crop prices have pulled back but remain at very good levels compared to the past seven years. The June 30th Quarterly Acreage and Stocks reports from USDA are eagerly anticipated and will set the stage. The grain trade is figuring on an increase in planted acres from the March 31st estimate, so the question is whether the trade has properly calculated the supply/demand ratio for now. If not, the post-report trade gets interesting. Stocks (on-farm, off-farm, and global) are another part of the puzzle that will receive some clarification with this report. Commodity funds remain quite long in both corn and beans, although not as long as a few weeks ago.
Land sales continue to bring great results. There has been no activity in this region of our territory so far this summer but rest assured that the strength seen in other parts of NW Iowa does translate to other areas. There will be sales results in this area later this summer.
Our auction of the Webb farm in northeastern Ida County on July 23rd will be a good test of the area for current values.
Dennis Reyman, AFM, ARA
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