Crop Conditions

After one of the warmest and dryest Februarys on record, March has been more erratic with temperatures and precipitation. The majority of Western Iowa received 2” of rain early this week. Most of Northwest Iowa is no longer in drought as classified by the U.S. Drought Monitor. However, most of the rest of the state remains in moderate to extreme drought. The worst areas are now in the northeast and southern parts of Iowa. The two-week outlook is warmer than average with above average rainfall odds. After four years of drought impact, it looks like we will at least start this season with good moisture in the typical rooting zone. The long-range forecasts call for the current El Nino weather pattern to end and switch to the opposite pattern called La Nina sometime this summer which would increase the odds of drought returning once again.

We may see planting activity start about two weeks from now. There’s no frost in the ground, so conditions could improve rapidly. It will depend how fast the soil warms up and rainfall amounts. The earliest planting dates for crop insurance is April 10th for corn and April 15th for soybeans. Typically, corn is planted in the second half of April and should be done by mid-May. Most soybeans are planted after corn in this region, but there’s a growing trend of planting soybeans as early as possible. The average last frost date is around May 10th for this area, so that’s a risk to planting beans before then.

The grain markets have continued a steady downtrend this year, which started in the second half of last year. However, it looks like the bottom in the corn market may have occurred in late February. Yesterday, the USDA released their quarterly Grain Stocks and annual Prospective Plantings reports. The US corn stocks, and planting acres were smaller than expected which pushed the corn market 15 cents higher. The soybean numbers were not as friendly, but it didn’t move the market much closing only a penny lower. The markets are closed today for Good Friday. Hopefully this momentum will carry into April and May.