Northeast Iowa Crop Conditions

Crop planting made a big jump in the area last week with finally some warm, dry weather. Most corn in the area that will be planted is now done, except for a few acres that will be replanted in drowned out/poor emergence areas. There will be farms that are still wet enough that the operator will take the prevent plant option on their crop insurance, as at this time it looks like this is the better economic option than planting soybeans. The downside to this is that a cover crop should be planted on these acres later this month, and also these acres will not be eligible for the Government Market Loss Payment the way we understand the rules now.

The earliest planted corn is starting to look better, although still behind normal. Herbicide spraying is starting this week.

Soybean planting is going strong right now, and many operators will be finishing up within the next several days. The first planted beans are emerged and generally look good.Nationally, the slow planting pace continues. With 83% of corn planted vs. 99% normally, and 60% of the soybeans planted vs. 88% normally. The question now is how much of the last roughly 12 million acres of corn will be planted given we are now in the time period where planting becomes quite risky. The market is trading the thought that 6-7 million acres will not be planted, and the recent run up in prices has taken this into account. It will likely take some more bullish weather news to extend the rally that has run out of gas over the last week.
Soybeans have a few weeks to go before planting becomes unfeasible, but yields tend to drop off on later planting, so the market is beginning to trade the thought of a slightly smaller crop. It will still take a significant yield hit to turn things bullish on soybeans, given our huge carryover numbers.