Northeast of Storm Lake
08-18-2023
| Past Weeks Rainfall | 2-5 inches (2 weeks) |
| Soil Moisture | Topsoil adequate, subsoil short |
| Temperature | Near Normal |
| Crop Progress | Slightly ahead of average |
Corn
| Crop Stage | Grain Fill |
| Yield Potential | Variable, but at least average in most areas |
Corn Market
| Current Prices | $5.66 |
| Fall Prices – 2023 | $4.50 |
| Past Weeks Trend | Higher |
Soybeans
| Crop Stage | Late pod set, pod filling |
| Yield Potential | Average |
Soybean Market
| Current Prices | $13.40 |
| Fall Prices – 2023 | $12.75 |
| Past Weeks Trend | Higher |
Comments:
The month of August has been nearly ideal weather wise. Temperatures have been near average, with favorably cool nights and daytime temperatures mostly in the upper 70's to mid 80's. The weekend of August 5th brought significant rainfall to most of the area, and there have been a couple of lighter events since. Topsoil moisture is mostly good at this time, although our long term subsoil moisture deficits persist. Looking back a little farther, July was well below average in rainfall. Fortunately, temperatures were also below average allowing the crops to maintain mostly good conditions. The stress period came the last several days of July, when temperatures reached the upper 90's. Crops in some areas of lighter soils began to show stress at the time, and we believe some yield potential was lost before the crop saving rains came in early August.
Looking ahead, forecast are turning much warmer for next week, with highs in the upper 90's with no rain, not an ideal outlook to finish out the crops. The corn will be less affected, as it is in the ear fill stage, but still may lose some top end potential if dry conditions continue beyond a week. The soybeans are more vulnerable, as they could still lose some late pods at the top of the plant, and also bean size.
The grain markets bottomed early this week but have since rebounded with the more threatening forecast. The most recent USDA estimates peg national corn yields at 175 bu/acre and soybeans at 51 bu/acre. Both of these yields are slightly under record levels. Corn prices have performed the worst over the last two months, with increased acres this year and poor export demand. Soybeans have held up better, as acres are lower and the demand picture is brighter. Next week the Pro Farmer crop tour will take place across the corn belt. This is the first and most widely followed "boots on the ground" survey of crop conditions. As usual, there will be quite a variation in conditions depending on rain amounts this summer, and it will be interesting to see their findings.
Looking ahead, forecast are turning much warmer for next week, with highs in the upper 90's with no rain, not an ideal outlook to finish out the crops. The corn will be less affected, as it is in the ear fill stage, but still may lose some top end potential if dry conditions continue beyond a week. The soybeans are more vulnerable, as they could still lose some late pods at the top of the plant, and also bean size.
The grain markets bottomed early this week but have since rebounded with the more threatening forecast. The most recent USDA estimates peg national corn yields at 175 bu/acre and soybeans at 51 bu/acre. Both of these yields are slightly under record levels. Corn prices have performed the worst over the last two months, with increased acres this year and poor export demand. Soybeans have held up better, as acres are lower and the demand picture is brighter. Next week the Pro Farmer crop tour will take place across the corn belt. This is the first and most widely followed "boots on the ground" survey of crop conditions. As usual, there will be quite a variation in conditions depending on rain amounts this summer, and it will be interesting to see their findings.
Nathan Deters AFM
Email Author
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