Northwest Iowa Crop Conditions

It’s been a cool and somewhat dry spring so far in NW Iowa. Soil moisture levels are mostly dry below the top foot or so. Reserve soil moisture levels are not a major concern around here yet, but they could become serious if we don’t have major rainfall this spring or early summer. The National Weather Service shows multiple chances of rain in the sort and long range forecasts, so conditions can change quickly. The drought monitor looks similar to how it looked one year ago, including most of Iowa in a stage of drought. Drought conditions intensify farther West in the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas. Basically the entire west half of the U.S. is in a two year drought.

It doesn’t look like planting will start in the next 7 to 10 days because of cool conditions. However, if the forecast warms up a touch, planting by mid-April is still a strong possibility. The crop insurance planting date is April 11th on corn (for replant coverage), I don’t think we’ll be pushing that date this year. The relatively dry soil should lead to fast planning progress when it does start. Most of the fertilizer is already applied. We are not concerned about delayed planting at this point.

Grain markets remain on a booming rally. The March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings report showed a decrease of corn acres to be planted this year because of the high cost of fertilizer. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has pushed grain prices higher. The invasion blocked off the main Black Sea ports which are huge for wheat and corn exports. The old crop in Ukraine is stuck in place, and the new crop needs to be planted during the war. Grains and food in general look to be in tight supplies. A below trend line crop this year in the U.S. would push prices even higher, but perhaps at the cost of significant demand destruction.