Northeast Iowa Crop Conditions

Corn planting has been spotty in the area. Good progress was made in some places about 7-10 days ago, but very little was planted last week following a general 1+ inch of rain last Wednesday. I would estimate overall around 50% of the corn is planted, and a very limited amount of soybeans. Cool temperatures have delayed emergence of the crop.

Statewide, the last week was 5° colder and wetter than normal. Corn planting is 48% done, 28% behind normal. Soybeans are 13% planted, 18% behind normal. Nationwide 30% of the corn is planted, 36% behind normal. Soybeans are 9% planted, 20% behind normal.

Corn planted after mid-May has historically shown yield reductions, so with this large a lag in progress the market should start to become worried about yields and acres, both of which are already priced into the market at high levels. This week will be critical, as somewhat of a window for planting is in the weather forecast.

Las week was a tough one for the grain markets, with trade talks with China taking a big step backwards, and no real plan in sight for getting negotiations back on track, although that could change again overnight. Soybeans have taken the biggest hit, with a 50¢/bu drop over the last two weeks. Corn has held up better, but is still a nickel/bu lower over that time frame. We’d like to think that all negative news is priced into the soybean market, with prices as low as they’ve been in a decade, but at this time it looks like only a severe weather problem later in the growing
season could generate a meaningful rally.