The northern two tiers of counties in Northwest Iowa and nearby areas of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Minnesota were hit with devastating flooding in late June. The recordsetting flooding reached levels above the infamous 1993 flood on multiple rivers including the Little Sioux, Big Sioux, Rock, Ocheyedan, West Des Moines, and others. There were too many communities affected by flooding to list. Many people had to evacuate their homes and businesses as flood waters rose very quickly. Thousands of acres of cropland were flooded, and many roads and bridges were closed. It all started from extreme rainfall over a large area stretching from west of Sioux Falls to more than 150 miles east along the northern edge of Iowa and southern Minnesota. Much of this area received more than ten inches of rain in two days. To make matters worse, the same area was already saturated from above average rainfall starting in April. The heavy runoff quickly flooded every river in the area as the flood water flowed south. Flood plain crops are severely affected even in areas to the south where recent rainfall was not excessive. Before the major flood event, this area already had a challenging spring with planting delays and replanting because of wet conditions. Most farms were able to get everything planted by mid-June only to have the wet spots and flood prone areas drowned out again. The most recent crop losses from flooding are unlikely to be replanted again this season.
As we move south in our territory, crop conditions generally improve. Outside the wet areas, most crops are in good condition as of early July despite the challenging planting season. The best crop conditions are found on rolling loess soils with natural drainage or pattern tiled farms away from rivers, streams, or low-lying areas. In both cases, excess water was able to drain away. The corn and soybeans on these well drained farms have very good yield potential so far.
The wet spring may impact final yield results in a variety of ways. The next concern may be a shift to hot and dry later this summer. After a wet spring, that’s problematic for crops with shallow, underdeveloped roots. The climate pattern known as LaNina is expected to arrive by mid-summer, which would make hot, dry weather more likely in this region. The combination of shallow corn roots and wet conditions will likely cause nitrogen deficiency this summer because some of the nitrogen fertilizer was lost from excessive rain. It’s common to see yellow corn following excessively wet soil environments because of poorly developed roots and nitrogen deficiency. High winds this season could also be an issue for corn fields with shallow roots making root lodging more likely. The good news is that for the first time in four years, we finally have plenty of soil moisture reserves. Most crops are right on schedule for size and growth thanks to warmer than average June temperatures. Corn and soybeans benefit from heat up to 86 degrees prior to the reproductive crop stages starting in July. Warm weather through the first half of the growing season gives crops the benefit of a full growing season and helps crops reach maturity before the first freeze. After pollination, a cool off in late July and August is beneficial because it slows down the grain fill process which improves grain quality and yield. I have a feeling the second half of the growing season will bring more surprises, but somehow this area always seems to grow a respectable crop despite all the weather challenges.
Grain Markets
While crop prospects in much of our area took a hit from the extreme rainfall over the last 2 months, most other areas of the Midwest have had a very good start to their growing season. One of the most common adages in the grain market is “Rain makes grain”, and rain has been abundant to this point in the growing season. The Drought Monitor shows the lowest level of drought in over 4 years, giving the grain markets little to worry about at this time. This can certainly change if the expected hotter than normal summer causes issues later in July and August, but currently a mostly low stress growing season has led the cash crop prices to the low side of their recent range, and new crop prices to contract lows, and the lowest levels since the start of the pandemic in 2020. While growing supplies are part of the price equation, stagnant demand is another. Exports are meeting lowered expectations this year, but are off to a very slow start for the new crop. Domestic demand is unlikely to make up the difference, continuing the trend of increasing carryout supplies. The chart below illustrates the increase from last year in the supplies of our major crops.
