Southwest Iowa Crop Conditions

Last year was record fast corn and bean planting. This year is no different, except maybe2-3 days later than last year. Corn planting was finished in April and bean planting was finished up around the first few days of May. Many bean fields were planted in April and quite a few were planted before corn. Early maturing beans planted very early have shown the best yields in recent years, so the trend continues. Planters wanting to go in early April were idled due to cold temps which continued into later April; however, the week of April 21st, the calendar and soil conditions over-ruled temps and planters rolled in excellent soil conditions. A few corn and bean fields have emerged while most fields are on the cusp of emergence. Rain covered much of this area last Sunday night (2nd) with amounts of half-inch up to 3+ inches near Mapleton. We are now hoping the old saying“plant in dust, the bins will bust” comes true in 2021! We definitely need at least average rainfall for that to happen.

Corn and bean prices have been off to the races. The way this market has behaved has no precedent in my recollection. Yes, we had higher prices in 2011-2012, but that market did not behave like this. Managed money funds have shattered their record for holding“long” positions in both corn and beans. When they head for the exits, prices will drop quickly, but it is a total guessing game as to when that will happen. We do know for sure that bull markets don’t run forever.

Factors driving the market are plentiful. South America is very dry and some of their second corn crop will not be harvested. As noted before, China has been on a buying spree to replenish stocks. Word came out last week that Chinese corn was going straight from the boats to the hog feeders and not into storage. That implies more buying is needed. Dry weather across much of the US has the market worried. USDA’s low acreage estimate in March fueled the market, but given this planting pace, we expect more acres will end up being planted to corn and beans. The Great Plains states grow a variety of crops and you’d think these prices would draw more acres into corn and beans.